As Canadians head to the ballot boxes Monday, plenty is riding on who their pick is to be Canada’s Prime Minister moving forward.
The election cycle, which has predictably been dominated by continued annexation rhetoric from South of the Border, appears set to bear a wide range of impacts on trade, diplomatic relations, and of course the economy.
But those aren’t the only issues worth keeping tabs on, particularly when it comes to the world of iGaming and gambling as a whole.
While something of a minor footnote in the race, major legislation could be coming down the pipeline depending on the outcome of Monday night’s result, which plenty of experts and books alike don’t anticipate will be all that close.
Following Justin Trudeau’s move to step down as leader of the Liberal Party, Mark Carney’s background as a central banker and widely held perception as a level-headed pragmatist appears to have polled well with voters, with sites such as 338canada.com giving the Grits an 85% chance to win the election and 65% chance to form the first Liberal Majority since 2015.
Betting Markets Signal Liberal Majority
That perception seems to hold true on the betting markets as well, with crypto-based prediction market Polymarket giving Carney a slightly less favourable — yet still tremendously likely — 80% chance to remain at 24 Sussex Drive. More traditional books are in that range, with FanDuel pricing a Liberal win at -385 (79% implied probability) and Sports Interaction pricing a Liberal Majority at -137 (57%).
“Though the margin closed in the final days of the campaign, the Liberals enter election day with a lead of just under four percentage points over the Conservatives,” the CBC said via their Election Day Poll Tracker. “Favoured by wide margins in key battlegrounds, the Liberals are very likely to win the most seats and have a good chance of securing a majority government.”
If these projections do ultimately hold, there could be significant fallout for the iGaming industry, with the potential for new taxes and legislative changes on the horizon.
One potential change for both casual and hardcore bettors could be a major change in advertising regulation surrounding betting ads. While legislative changes have already changed how betting advertisements are presented, those decisions have largely been left to provinces.
That could change, however, after the approval of a bill late last year that will see the development of a national framework for sports betting advertising. Though word had been that there was little reason to believe things would ultimately be changing anytime soon, with the bill also requiring approval in the House of Commons, a Liberal Majority could spur more pro-consumer regulation down the line.
The other major change that could be on the horizon with a Liberal Majority win could be a change in taxation around iGaming, particularly a digital sales tax on online gaming.
Industry Voices: Concerns Over Tax Hikes vs. Calls for Business-Friendly Policy
“That would be worry No. 1, because that would just drive up cost and chase legitimate operators out of the market,” a senior industry source told Casino.org. “I could also put a sizable bet on the Canadian Lottery Coalition trying to shoehorn online gaming into the Online Harms Bill … making it more difficult for other provinces to regulate.”
Others in the industry, including Canadian Gaming Association President and CEO Paul Burns, don’t feel that’s something most Canadians should be concerned about.
“That would be incredibly tone deaf,” Burns said. “ If the politicians that are running for office are true to their commitment about wanting to create a positive business climate in Canada, to do business, that wouldn’t be one way to do it. I would be extremely surprised if that was the case.”
