Odds for First-Time Grand Slam Winners in 2025 – Who Will Break Through?

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Fact Checked by Thomas Leary

The second leg of tennis’ grand slam starts this week across Canada sports betting, when the top players from around the world hit the clay courts of Roland-Garros for the French Open.

Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz defeated Alexander Zverev of Germany in a five-set comeback last year to win his first French Open title. All that’s missing from the 22-year-old’s resume is an Australian Open championship for him to become the ninth ever to win the Career Grand Slam.

With the opening matches starting on May 25, BetCanada.com wanted to identify who are the players most likely to win their first major in Paris. These odds are for infotainment purposes only and not available on Canada sportsbook apps.

Next Potential First-Time Grand Slam Champions: Betting Odds & Analysis

Player

Best Finish

Odds

Percentage Chance

Alexander Zverev

2024 French Open Final

+275

26.7%

Taylor Fritz

2024 US Open Final

+325

23.5%

Casper Ruud

2023 French Open Final

+500

16.7%

Jack Draper

2024 US Open Semifinal

+700

12.5%

Joao Fonseca

2024 Wimbledon Quarterfinal

+1500

6.3%

Holger Rune

2023 Wimbledon Quarterfinal

+2500

3.8%

Lorenzo Musetti

2024 Wimbledon Semifinal

+2500

3.8%

The Field

 

+1250

7.4%

Zverev reached the Frech Open final for the first time last year, and has won several tournaments on clay, including this year’s BMW Open in Munich. At Pinnacle, Zverev is the fourth choice to win this year’s championship with odds of +788.

Ruud, 26, won the Mutua Madrid Open earlier this month. He reached the finals in Paris in 2022 and 2023, losing to Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, respectively. He’s currently the fifth choice at Pinnacle, with oddsmakers there giving him odds of +1403.

Others May Wait Longer For First Tennis Major

Fritz was a junior finalist in the French Open a decade ago, but professionally, his best finish at Roland-Garros came last year in the fourth round. The American, 27, is currently ranked fourth in the world and will likely have a better chance to reach the final in July at Wimbledon or two months later at the U.S. Open. Pinnacle offers odds of +11509 on Fritz winning the French Open, making him a significant underdog.

Draper, 23, is ranked fifth in the world. He has shown improvement on clay this year, having won nine of his 12 matches on the surface. However, he has not yet won a clay tournament as a pro. His best finish was losing to Ruud in the finals at Madrid earlier this month, where he took the second set, but lost 7-5, 3-6, 6-4.

Could the Englishman make a breakthrough in Paris? It’s possible. However, Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner the heavy favorites, +143 and +168, respectively, and Draper has yet to advance out of the first round at Roland-Garros. He should fare better this year, but it may seem a stretch for him to make it far into the second week.

Draper is available at +2525, the eighth-shortest price on Pinnacle’s board.

USA Today photo by Geoff Burke.

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Author

Steve Bittenbender

Steve is an accomplished, award-winning reporter with more than 20 years of experience covering gaming, sports, politics and business. He has written for the Associated Press, Reuters, The Louisville Courier Journal, The Center Square and numerous other publications. Based in Louisville, Ky., Steve has covered the expansion of sports betting in the U.S. and other gaming matters. He shares his expertise on BetCanada, among other sites.