NHL MVP Odds: Hart Trophy Odds 2025-26 Season

MacKinnon's favorite status

MacKinnon is the favorite on the Hart Trophy leaderboard according to Canadian sportsbooks. Currently, he has -260 odds to win the Hart Trophy. After a torrid start to the season, MacKinnon has cemented himself as the favorite while leading the Avalanche to the best record. 

The Goalie Hangover Effect

Connor Hellebuyck did the unthinkable last season, becoming the first goalie to win the Hart Trophy since Carey Price did it in the 2024–25 season. Only eight goalies have ever won the Hart Trophy, showing how rare it was for Hellebuyck to accomplish this feat. However, only one goalie in history has ever repeated as a Hart Trophy winner, as Dominik Hasek won back-to-back after claiming it in 1997 and again in 1998. This year, Hellebuyck isn’t even in the top-five favorites to win the award, with no goalies appearing among the leaders, suggesting the market might be overcorrecting toward forwards. To make matters worse, Hellebuyck is currently out with an injury, further diminishing any chance he had of staying in the Hart conversation.

NHL Hart Trophy Odds

As we enter January, it feels right to talk about the potential Hart Trophy candidates, and where everything lies in this race. There are several great candidates to win the coveted NHL MVP trophy for the regular season. 

Analyzing the MVP Favorite

Nathan MacKinnon had a great season, showing why he could also be considered a Hart Trophy candidate. He netted 32 goals and 84 assists last season, leading the Avalanche to the playoffs once again. MacKinnon won the Hart Trophy in the 2023-24 season, and will look to win it for the second time in three seasons. 

MacKinnon’s impact goes far beyond the scoresheet, though. Every shift he takes seems to change the energy of the game—his speed through the neutral zone, his explosiveness off the rush, and his ability to create something out of nothing make him one of the most dangerous players in the league. He’s the heartbeat of Colorado’s offense, setting the tone with his relentless drive and leadership. When the Avalanche need a spark, it’s almost always MacKinnon who delivers, whether it’s a clutch goal, a setup that leaves defenders frozen, or simply his presence pushing his teammates to elevate their play.

 

The Incumbents Chance

Connor Hellebuyck won the Hart Trophy last season, and will look to claim his second consecutive this season. Currently, he comes in at +50000 odds to win the Hart Trophy, which translates to just a .2% chance. Hellebuyck currently has the 23rd-best odds to win the Hart Trophy, indicating that oddsmakers don't believe he will have much of a chance to repeat this season. 

Contenders for the Hart Trophy

Connor McDavid (+425)

Connor McDavid is one of the greatest players of this generation. Amazingly, he has tallied 100 or more points in five consecutive seasons, and in eight of nine seasons. McDavid is simply the best scorer, and gives the Edmonton Oilers a chance to win every night. It's not far-fetched to say that he's the most important player on the team, and they probably wouldn't make it to back-to-back Stanley Cup Final matches. 

McDavid comes through in the clutch more often than not. Overall, his stick-handling skills and ability to find open teammates are beyond the realm of anything that other hockey players can imagine. It was just two seasons ago that he had 100 assists, which is mind-boggling in the grand scheme of things. 

Macklin Celebrini (+425)

Macklin Celebrini has been a gifted performer since he arrived in the NHL, and now has the chance to lead the Sharks from the basement to the playoffs. Yes, the Sharks are currently a playoff contender, and much of that has to do with Celebrini playing out of his mind, carrying the team on his back with his elite playmaking and puck-handling skills. If this continues, Celebrini might cement himself as a Hart Trophy contender. 

Positional Bias Returns

Forwards will likely dominate this group after Hellebuyck took the award. Of course, it always starts with McDavid, and he is a three-time winner of the Hart Trophy. Nikita Kucherov won the Hart Trophy in the 2018-19 season and is coming off a 2024-25 season in which he scored 121 points. Kucherov has proven he can still create plays, and is one of the best scorers in the NHL. Leon Draisaitl is still also around, and has also won the Hart Trophy in the 2019-20 season. 

Do MVP Candidates Have Team Success?

Nathan MacKinnon 

Nathan MacKinnon has already led his team to the Stanley Cup, where they claimed the most prestigious trophy in all of professional sports. While the Colorado Avalanche have hit a roadblock lately against the Dallas Stars, they are still an elite team that can go all the way to the Stanley Cup. MacKinnon exhibits leadership in every fashion, and is the most valuable player on the Avs, who are still a Stanley Cup contender.

Connor McDavid 

Without McDavid, the Edmonton Oilers likely get eliminated in the First Round against the Los Angeles Kings. His leadership and ability to motivate his team helped Edmonton overcome a 2-0 series deficit to win that series. Then, he would lead the Oilers to series wins over the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars before succumbing to the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup. 

Macklin Celebrini 

Macklin Celebrini has brought new life to the San Jose Sharks. After years of rebuilding, the franchise finally has a true cornerstone to build around—someone who plays with confidence, composure, and skill well beyond his age. Celebrini’s presence has given the Sharks a spark they’ve desperately needed, both on the ice and in the locker room. His playmaking instincts and ability to create offense in any situation have made him an instant fan favorite. For the first time in a long time, there’s real excitement in San Jose, and it all starts with Celebrini leading the next generation of Sharks hockey.

Nikita Kuchervov 

People often forget that Nikita Kucherov took the Lightning to four Stanley Cups, winning two. Now, he has the Bolts leading the division, and once again in a prime position to contend for another. Kucherov’s playmaking and scoring touch remain elite, making him a constant threat on the ice. His ability to elevate the play of those around him keeps Tampa Bay competitive night after night, and he could easily emerge as a top MVP candidate if the team maintains its pace.

Best Bet Timing

The best time to put a future bet is likely just before the season or in the summer. That is when the odds are the lowest, and it gives you more value for your bet. For example, if you were to place a $20 bet on Kaprizov to win the Hart Trophy right now, you would get $220 back if you were to win. Likewise, a bet on Auston Matthews of the same value would give you $800 back if he were to win. 

Big Takeaways and My Bet

There are so many contenders for who can claim the Hart Trophy. If chasing value over top contenders, Nikita Kucherov would be a great pick to win, as a bet on him would fetch you $1000 on a $20 bet. However, it's hard to ignore Connor McDavid, the greatest player in the NHL today. McDavid recently inked a two-year contract extension, so there are no distractions for him this season.