McDavid's Favorite Status
McDavid is the current favorite on the Hart Trophy leaderboard according to Canadian sportsbooks. Currently, he has +200 odds to win the Hart Trophy. While McDavid is coming off a "down year" by his standards, the lights are bright, and he has a chance to emerge as the Hart Trophy winner again. It would not be surprising to see the best scorer in the NHL claim it this season. Significantly, he has won the Hart Trophy three times, all of it happening in odds years (2017, 2021, and 2023)
The Goalie Hangover Effect
Connor Hellebuyck did the unthinkable last season, becoming the first goalie to win the Hart Trophy since Carey Price did it in the 2024-2025 season. Only eight goalies have ever won the Hart Trophy, showing how rare it was for Hellebuyck to accomplish this feat. However, only one goalie in history has ever repeated as Hart Trophy winner, as Dominic Hasek won back-to-back after claiming it in 1997 and again in 1998. However, Hellebuyck is not in the favorites list to win it this season. No goalies are in the current top-5 favorites, indicating that the market might be overcorrecting to the forwards this season.
Way To Early NHL Hart Trophy Odds
As the summer blazes on, it's only appropriate to talk about the way-too-early Hart Trophy favorites. There are several great candidates to win the coveted NHL MVP trophy for the regular season.
Analyzing the Way To Early MVP Favorite
Connor McDavid is one of the greatest players of this generation. Amazingly, he has tallied 100 or more points in five consecutive seasons, and in eight of nine seasons. McDavid is simply the best scorer, and gives the Edmonton Oilers a chance to win every night. It's not far-fetched to say that he's the most important player on the team, and they probably wouldn't make it to back-to-back Stanley Cup Final matches.
McDavid comes through in the clutch more often than not. Overall, his stick-handling skills and ability to find open teammates are beyond the realm of anything that other hockey players can imagine. It was just two seasons ago that he had 100 assists, which is mind-boggling in the grand scheme of things.
The Incumbents Chance
Connor Hellebuyck won the Hart Trophy last season, and will look to claim his second consecutive this season. Currently, he comes in at +5000 odds to win the Hart Trophy, which translates to just a 1.96% chance. Hellebuyck currently has the 13th-best odds to win the Hart Trophy, indicating that oddsmakers don't believe he will have much of a chance to repeat this season.
Value Plays & Dark Horses
Kirill Kaprizov (+1200)
Kirill Kaprizov had a promising season cut short by a lengthy injury, scoring 25 goals and recording 31 assists in just 41 games. Had he played all 82 games, he could have had 50 goals and 62 assists, which definitely would have put him in consideration for the Hart Trophy, and he can win it this season if he can hit those numbers.
Write two sentences on each player below and introduce all of them as dark horse/value play candidates.
Jack Hughes (+2000)
Jack Hughes is another player who has not met his full potential because of injuries, but could be a breakout candidate at age 24. Last season, he had 27 goals and 43 assists over 62 games. He likely might have hit 93 points had he played all 82 games, and there is potential for even more if he can stay on the ice.
Auston Matthews (+1800)
Auston Matthews has won a Hart Trophy once, claiming it in the 2021-2022 season. Ultimately, he has reached 100 points in just two of his nine seasons, falling short of the necessary number to claim the Hart Trophy on more than one occasion.
Connor Bedard (+25000)
After a solid sophomore season, Bedard makes it on the list as a heavy underdog to win the Hart Trophy. While there is a chance he can do it, he will need to have a major jump in his third season.
Positional Bias Returns
Forwards will likely dominate this group after Hellebuyck took the award. Of course, it always starts with McDavid, and he is a three-time winner of the Hart Trophy. Nikita Kucherov won the Hart Trophy in the 2018-19 season and is coming off a 2024-25 season in which he scored 121 points. Kucherov has proven he can still create plays, and is one of the best scorers in the NHL. Leon Draisaitl is still also around, and has also won the Hart Trophy in the 2019-20 season.
The Russian Revolution
Kucherov has not won the Hart Trophy since the 2018-19 season. Regardless, his talent has no bounds, and tallying 121 points last season proved how he can still be a significant threat on a nightly basis. Of course, Kaprizov is one of the most dangerous talents in the league, and can put up 100+ points. Kaprizov drives the Minnesota Wild, and is looking for a breakout season.
Do MVP Candidates Have Team Success?
Connor McDavid (+200)
Without McDavid, the Edmonton Oilers likely get eliminated in the First Round against the Los Angeles Kings. His leadership and ability to motivate his team helped Edmonton overcome a 2-0 series deficit to win that series. Then, he would lead the Oilers to series wins over the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars before succumbing to the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup.
Nathan MacKinnon (+500)
Nathan MacKinnon has already led his team to the Stanley Cup, where they claimed the most prestigious trophy in all of professional sports. While the Colorado Avalanche have hit a roadblock lately against the Dallas Stars, they are still an elite team that can go all the way to the Stanley Cup. MacKinnon exhibits leadership in every fashion, and is the most valuable player on the Avs, who are still a Stanley Cup contender.
Kirill Kaprizov (+800)
The Minnesota Wild survived without Kaprizov for an extended period. Yet, even with his return, the Wild failed to defeat the Vegas Golden Knights in the First Round. Somehow, the Wild have only advanced past the First Round just three times in their franchise history, and not once since the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Nikita Kucherov (+1000)
The Tampa Bay Lightning have won the Stanley Cup twice and appeared in three Stanley Cup Finals. Without a doubt, Kucherov is at the heart of this team, and has been one of the main reasons why the Bolts have two titles in this decade, and will likely give them a chance to win a third.
Leon Draisaitl (+1000)
Just as McDavid makes the Oilers go, Draisaitl is just as valuable. Amazingly, Draisaitl scored 100 or more points for the fourth straight season, and also helped them win numerous games in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. It was his three points in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup that helped the Oilers stun the Florida Panthers and even up the series.
Best Bet Timing
The best time to put a future bet is likely just before the season or in the summer. That is when the odds are the lowest, and it gives you more value for your bet. For example, if you were to place a $20 bet on Kaprizov to win the Hart Trophy right now, you would get $180 back if you were to win. Likewise, a bet on Auston Matthews of the same value would give you $360 back if he were to win.
Big Takeaways and My Bet
There are so many contenders for who can claim the Hart Trophy. If chasing value over top contenders, Leon Draisaitl would be a great pick to win, as a bet on him would fetch you $220 on a $20 bet. However, it's hard to ignore Connor McDavid, the greatest player in the NHL today. McDavid is in a contract year, and he will be looking to get the largest contract in the NHL, so it sets him up for a fantastic season.
Author
Robert B. Hayek has been writing about sports for over a decade and is currently a member of the Gambling.com Group team. In his spare time, he runs the largest sports meetup group in Orange County, CA, actively participating in every sport imaginable. He is also a published author of five thriller novels, all available on Amazon.