Author
Christopher Boan is a reporter and writer with BetCanada.com. He's covered the gambling industry for nearly a decade, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly, and the Green Valley News.
Will Connor McDavid Re-Sign with the Oilers in 2026? Potential Landing Spots If McDavid Hits Free Agency
On the heels of a second straight Stanley Cup Finals defeat at the hands of the Florida Panthers, there’s a chance that three-time MVP winner Connor McDavid enters the final year of the $100 million deal he signed with the Edmonton Oilers back in 2018, making him a unrestricted free agent (potentially) once the 2025-26 season ends.
With that in mind, BetCanada.com wanted to break down the odds on where the superstar center will go next, with the Western Conference champs holding commanding odds of keeping the 28-year-old long term.
Analyzing the Front-Runners for McDavid’s 2026 Decision
Team | Odds | Percentage Chance |
Stay with Edmonton Oilers | -210 | 67.7% |
Toronto Maple Leafs | +1250 | 7.4% |
New York Rangers | +2250 | 4.3% |
Los Angeles Kings | +2750 | 3.5% |
Vegas Golden Knights | +2750 | 3.5% |
Chicago Blackhawks | +3500 | 2.8% |
Montreal Canadiens | +3500 | 2.8% |
Colorado Avalanche | +4500 | 2.2% |
Pittsburgh Penguins | +4500 | 2.2% |
The Field | +2750 | 3.5% |
BetCanada, as part of our Canada sports betting coverage, has hypothetical odds on McDavid's future.
Given McDavid’s success in Edmonton, with five consecutive seasons notching 70-plus assists and eight 100-point seasons in the last nine years, it’s worth remembering that McDavid’s likely going to stay north of the border for years to come. That’s why we give the Oilers -210 odds of keeping him, as the superstar enters the final year of his deal that’s set to earn $12.5 million, with the star-studded Toronto Maple Leafs being the leading outside suitor, at +1250.
Must be 19+ to participate. T&Cs apply. Play Responsibly.
Key Considerations in McDavid’s 2026 Free Agency Decision
Given McDavid’s long-held stance that his top priority, career-wise, is to win a lot of games, it would make sense for the veteran forward to stay in Edmonton, as the club has won the Western Conference two years in a row and made the postseason every year since 2019-20. By comparison, the Maple Leafs last reached the NHL Conference Finals in 2002, with eight defeats in the first round, three second round exits and a qualifying round defeat to their name since that run.
One thing that is in Toronto’s favor is that the club has the ninth most salary cap space in the league for the 2025-26 season, at $25.7 million, while the Oilers rank 24th leaguewide with $11.962 million to spend this offseason.
Must be 19+ to participate. T&Cs apply. Play Responsibly.
Potential Suitors for Connor McDavid in 2026
Should the Leafs fail in landing McDavid, other teams to keep an eye on include the New York Rangers (+2250), Los Angeles Kings and Vegas Golden Knights (+2750 each), while rebuilding clubs like the Chicago Blackhawks and Montreal Canadiens are up there as well, with +3500 odds of landing the star center this offseason.
USA Today photo by Perry Nelson.
FAQs: Connor McDavid's 2026 Free Agency
McDavid is set to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, 2026, unless he signs an extension beforehand.
As of now, sportsbooks favor a return to Edmonton with a 67.7% implied probability. He remains the team's cornerstone, but much will depend on the Oilers’ playoff performance over next season and their ability to retain key talent.
Under NHL rules, McDavid becomes eligible to sign an extension on July 1, 2025, exactly one year before he hits unrestricted free agency. This date will be critical for gauging his intentions.
If he re-signs in Edmonton, McDavid could command a maximum 8-year deal worth over $120 million, depending on the salary cap at the time. Other teams would be limited to 7 years, reducing total value.
If McDavid hits free agency in 2026, his hometown team – the Toronto Maple Leafs – are the favorite to sign the superstar. The New York Rangers, Los Angeles Kings and Vegas Golden Knights could all emerge as big market appeal and team fit loom large.